What predicts a happy relationship?
In 2020, a team of 86 researchers pooled 43 long-term studies covering more than 11,000 couples and used machine learning to test which self-reported factors best predicted relationship satisfaction. The strongest predictors were about the relationship itself:
- believing your partner is fully committed
- feeling appreciated
- sexual satisfaction
- feeling close, and having less conflict
Relationship factors explained nearly half of the differences in satisfaction. Each person’s own traits, such as life satisfaction, mood, and attachment style, explained about 21%. A partner’s traits added only about 5%. As one of the authors put it, “who I am” matters less once we know “who I am when I am with you.”
Do similar people make better couples?
Partly. People are attracted to others who seem similar, especially in values and attitudes. But a large review of similarity research found that in existing relationships, feeling similar predicted attraction better than actually being similar. Couples who understand and accept each other’s differences often feel more alike than they are.
Some differences matter more than others. Disagreements about having children, where to live, money habits, and faith are hard to split down the middle, so they are worth discussing early.
How you argue matters more than whether you argue
All couples disagree. Psychologist John Gottman’s research identified four habits during conflict that predict trouble, which he called the “Four Horsemen,” along with what to do instead:
| Habit | What it looks like | Try instead |
|---|---|---|
| Criticism | Attacking your partner’s character: “You never think of anyone but yourself.” | A gentle start: describe the problem and what you need. |
| Contempt | Mockery, eye-rolling, or acting superior. | Build a habit of appreciation and respect. |
| Defensiveness | Excuses or turning the blame around. | Take responsibility for your part, even a small one. |
| Stonewalling | Shutting down and withdrawing. | Take a break to calm down, then come back to it. |
Gottman calls contempt the single greatest predictor of divorce.
Topics worth talking about
- Money: saving vs. spending, joint or separate accounts, debt.
- Children: whether, how many, and when.
- Where to live: near family, for whose career, city or country.
- Time together and apart: friends, hobbies, weekends.
- Chores and plans: who does what, and how far ahead you plan.
- Faith and traditions: holidays, family expectations, values.
- Conflict style: talk it out now, or cool off first?
Our free couple quiz covers these topics and gives you questions to discuss where you differ.
What about zodiac signs?
Astrology is a centuries-old tradition and a fun way to talk about personality, but studies have not found that sun signs predict who couples up, who stays together, or who is happy. Use our zodiac and Chinese zodiac tools for fun, not decisions.
When to get help
If conflict feels constant, frightening, or one-sided, a licensed couples therapist can help. If you feel unsafe, the National Domestic Violence Hotline is available 24/7 at 1-800-799-7233, by texting START to 88788, or at thehotline.org.
Sources
Joel et al. (2020), Machine learning uncovers the most robust self-report predictors of relationship quality across 43 longitudinal couples studies, PNAS
Western University: Machine learning predicts satisfaction in romantic relationships
Montoya, Horton & Kirchner (2008), Is actual similarity necessary for attraction? A meta-analysis
The Gottman Institute: The Four Horsemen
Wikipedia: Astrology and science